In this week’s recap: the Dow crests 28,000; more hints emerge that the U.S. and China could be heading toward a new trade pact; retail sales rise.
Weekly Economic Update
THE WEEK ON WALL STREET
Stock benchmarks were little changed for much of last week, but a rally occurred Friday after news broke that the U.S. and China could be closing in on the first phase of a new trade pact.
At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 28,000 level. The Dow rose 1.17% for the week, outgaining the S&P 500 (which advanced 0.89%) and the Nasdaq Composite (which added 0.77%). The MSCI EAFE index, representing developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.77%.1,2
Will There Be a Trade Breakthrough?
Friday, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross told the media that “in all likelihood,” a phase-one trade deal between China and the U.S. would presently happen, stating that the talks were “down to the last details.” Thursday evening, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow expressed similar optimism, noting that negotiations were “coming down to the short strokes.”
That said, the Wall Street Journal reported last week that President Trump is not yet committed to signing a phase-one trade deal. Secretary Ross noted that such an agreement would be “relatively limited in scope.”3,4
Consumers Boost Their Buying
Retail sales advanced 0.3% in October, according to the Department of Commerce. That matched the gain forecast by economists polled by MarketWatch. This was a comeback after a September decline.5
THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA
- Wednesday: Minutes from the October Federal Reserve meeting appear.
- Thursday: The National Association of Realtors presents data on October existing home sales.
- Friday: The University of Michigan publishes its final Consumer Sentiment Index for November (an assessment of consumer confidence).
Source: Econoday, November 15, 2019
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS
- Tuesday: Home Depot (HD), Medtronic (MDT), TJX Companies (TJX)
- Wednesday: Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT)
- Thursday: Intuit (INTU), Ross Stores (ROST)
Source: Zacks.com, November 15, 2019
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1 – wsj.com/market-data [11/15/19]
2 – quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [11/15/19]
3 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-15/kudlow-says-phase-one-china-deal-down-to-the-short-strokes-k2zgbx0k [11/15/19]
4 – foxbusiness.com/politics/u-s-china-trade-deal-near-but-trump-not-signing-yet [11/15/19]
5 – marketwatch.com/story/us-retail-sales-rebound-in-october-but-a-small-group-of-stores-reap-most-of-the-gains-2019-11-15 [11/15/19]