Weekly Economic Update
In this week’s recap: the “yield curve” inverts for the first time this decade, the Federal Reserve adjusts its stance on interest rates, and the price of oil climbs.
THE WEEK ON WALL STREET
Friday, the yield of the 3-month Treasury bill exceeded the yield of the 10-year Treasury note for the first time in 12 years. For some analysts, this “inverted yield curve” may imply a short-term lessening of confidence. (Treasury yields move inversely to Treasury prices.)1
As a result, the S&P 500 ended the week 0.94% lower. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.80%, and the Dow Industrials lost 1.19%.2,3,4
In contrast, the MSCI EAFE index following international stocks rose, gaining 0.52% for the week.5
FED SEES NO HIKES IN 2019
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, but lowered its estimate of 2019 economic growth to 2.1%.
Last December, the central bank forecast two rate hikes in 2019. It now expects to leave rates unchanged this year, with one quarter-point hike projected for 2020.
This pivot may acknowledge a slight change in economic conditions. The Fed’s latest policy statement noted that the “growth of economic activity has slowed from its solid rate in the fourth quarter.”6
OIL HOVERS NEAR $60
At Friday’s closing bell, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (NYMEX) crude oil was valued at $58.85 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Its value briefly climbed to $60 earlier in the week.
Month-over-month, the price of WTI crude has risen nearly 5%. Historically, higher oil prices can have a significant impact on retail gasoline prices.7
A U.S. delegation is scheduled to accompany Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin to China this week for further trade negotiations. Finally, Brexit will not occur this Friday, as the European Union has extended the United Kingdom’s deadline in response to Prime Minister Theresa May’s request.8,9
THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA
- Tuesday: The Conference Board’s latest reading on consumer confidence.
- Thursday: February pending home sales, and the federal government’s second estimate of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
- Friday: Reports on consumer spending and new home sales, and March’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, another measure of consumer confidence levels.
Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, March 22, 2019
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision. The release of data may be delayed without notice for a variety of reasons.
THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS
- Monday: Winnebago (WGO)
- Tuesday: KB Home (KBH)
- Wednesday: Lennar (LEN), Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Paychex (PAYX)
- Thursday: Accenture (ACN)
- Friday: Blackberry (BB), CarMax (KMX)
Source: Morningstar.com, March 22, 2019
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
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1 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-22/u-s-treasury-yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-2007 [3/22/19]
2 – quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX [3/22/19]
3 – quotes.wsj.com/index/DJIA [3/22/19]
4 – quotes.wsj.com/index/NASDAQ [3/22/19]
5 – quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [3/22/19]
6 – cbsnews.com/news/fed-rate-hikes-none-in-2019-federal-reserve-projects-no-rate-hikes-slower-growth-this-year/ [3/20/19]
7 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [3/22/19]
8 – cnbc.com/2019/03/20/trump-says-china-tariffs-could-stay-in-place-amid-trade-deal-talks.html [3/20/19]
9 – nytimes.com/2019/03/21/world/europe/brexit-extension-eu-uk.html [3/21/19]